Weekly Update

I am thinking because it is so time consuming to post here i might limit it down to once a week (weekends) is when i do most my analysis.

I mean i don'd mind sharing my thoughts but it takes so long to post charts up and for this reason i will limit this unless people want specific things answered then please feel free to send me an email and i will work on your questions. scilliamstrading@gmail.com

Anyway i will give my update and thoughts for the week but in much more detail.

Try make it more of a newsletter wrap up thing but with more of a focus of what i will be watching in the week. Obviously it is better to follow on twitter as i update that live as i am taking trades and see things. But remember you all need to make your own decisions. I will try doing videos during the week when i have the time. :)

FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER: we are now into the first week of October... where has this year gone!

This week there is the RBA interest rate decision and that will have a major play on the markets im assuming. (personally i dont think they will raise interest rates) i feel that the AUD has been given to much probability of a rate rise and will get sold off on the announcement regardless...

I am this week going to watch JBH. I feel JBH might be coming near to making a top and taking a decline back to between $15 or $17 area. (indicated by the blue highlight on chart)



This area is also 180 degrees or square of the highs and coincidently the 50% fib level from the last major range up. There are 2 major repeating ranges down both which project a target to around this area. From here i want to see a lower top formed with over bought Daily indicators. Once this has happened i would look to take the entry. However i should indicate that i want this to be within 25% of my monthly ranges.

I am thinking JBH will be a great long for monday when you play the openers rule with it. I would be looking for a target around initially $21 and then $21.20 area. Once a swing looks confirmed i will open a short position with stops over the highs at $22.50 area and try and short the stock back down to around $15/$17. I will assess as the position begins to shape up as there is still the risk that it will make a double top before going down.

I thought i would share that plan here as its open to interpretation and is more of a longer term look for the stock.

Hope it was useful :)

Video on MQG

Trade i did on MQG here is the video...

http://www.youtube.com/user/scilliams?feature=mhum

:)

Gold

Looking at the gold chart all you can do is think WOW that is a big rise!

We seem to keep wanting to short gold but patience is probably the best way to deal with this chart. Obviously $1300 was going to be a significant level but do we really think it will stop there? I DONT KNOW!

I have just done this chart to show the first major range on gold reached 150% and pulled back. I have drawn a horizontal black line at this level and another one at 161.8% of that move. To me a parabolic rise like this only ends going one way and that is down!

When or where from is the more refined art of this 'top picking' game. I certainly think gold could push through $1300 and even up to $1350 if it rapidly accelerated north i would be so confident in saying that this is a top and a major correction will follow.

I have included the fib levels as well as the strong $1000 level on the chart with a repeating range. These would be the areas i would watch as a profit level. Should gold begin to make any lower swing tops i will begin to short it and try ride it for a couple months down to these levels.

But this will develop in time :)



I will put up some more charts soon :)

BHP

Here is a chart i did on BHP for a friend.

Higher lows and looks to be in a bit of an uptrend but it will be coming into that trendline and i would maybe expect it to reject and could get short from there?

Will be interesting to see how this week plays out but im sure we will have plenty of good opportunities to make some dollars :)

TLS

Here is a chart on TLS...

I don't normally trade TLS but interesting for those that want to...

Range and Swing Trading Video

Hey Guys

Sorry i always forget to update this frequently! it must annoy so im sorry i will try do it more and more. Although i am very active on twitter so if your on there just buzz me and ask me to explain something and im more than happy to post charts or video up here or youtube to try explain my crazy antics... as im sure my desk explains 'organised chaos'

Anyway here is a video i did today on the range and swing trading i try and do.

http://www.youtube.com/user/scilliams?feature=mhum

If you want more information and videos about this trade the trade is excellent and has some videos on his site under ranges

http://sites.google.com/site/tradethetrade/


I will flick up some charts this weekend and more frequently as i now have the profit source so i will try be more organised with my analysis etc...

CTX Update

This is my CTX chart as you know if you read this blog.

Anyway this is why i took a short position on CTX where it is today. Stops to be tight would be just over the 12.60 area but to give it a lower double top/double top scenario i would look to put stops over 12.75 (previous highs in April)



Lets see what the market wants to do. Purely speculative and no lower swing top to confirm this trade!