Gann - BHP

Ok so for those of you that follow this blog i thought i would share a bit of gann stuff in regards to time and price on BHP.

Firstly this does not really mean that a turn must happen but it certainly does give weight to anyone looking to get a short position.

How i would trade this tomorrow (Tuesday) is that i would apply openers rule for my position 1. So this means i will take 1/3 or 1/2 of a full position when price falls below the opening price. Should it open and go flying up to around 41.60 area i will take some of a position and just give it a wide stop loss as this position wont be huge. Then i would add to this position on the first confirmed lower swing top. After that stops are moved down to the highs and i will look for $39 or around here as my target....

This first chart i have is a repeating time range chart. This shows the move down from april highs to the lows in may as a time and how often it has repeated and called turns.



The second his the Square root turns. This is the high or low price of a point on the chart and finding the square root of this and then turning it into calendar days and projecting forward to find a turn date on the stock.



The third chart is showing the significant number of time and price turns landing on and around the 11/12th of october. Mostly trading days but some significant calendar days from prior highs and lows.



This last chart shows the indicators clearly in the over bought area of the chart as well as the Square of 9 resistance from the April tops. This is resistance at 41.69. This level 41.60 is also significant for BHP as it is a multiple of the all time lows and has proven to be resistance previously.



The last chart i am posting is the monthly range of BHP which is around $4. We can see that price is currently at the 50% level of this a very strong failure point and another factor for us looking for a turn.




That is my analysis on BHP. I wouldn't normally share that but thought i would try rewarding those who actually read this blog regularly and provide some out side of the box analysis on a major stock that is regularly traded.

Should we not get a nice openers rule or a good entry we might not even take a position but it certainly does help the argument that the market that we could have a slight correction this week with so many cycles lining up.

Hope that was enlightening

Regards,

Scott

Gold Parabolic

I did another post on gold but this one is just basic. Thought i would overlay the XJO and show the parabolic rise there and what gold is doing at the moment. Im not gonna bother picking a top but i know what the result is going to be...

AUD/USD ... are you kidding me?

SO SO SO.... that RBA decided to leave rates on hold today (as i expected, pffft as if they would raise them with inflation steady, housing data not to hot and where the AUD was!)

There are many problems associated with having a strong currency especially for exporters.

Anyway. After the announcement and the subsequent fall in the AUD/USD i looked for an entry. I scalped a few pips here and there but hadn't built my position yet.

Now i am in from an average of around 9620 and its currently trading over 9660... are you kidding me?

Anyway stops are higher up for my positions being spread. Basically i dont want it to go over the weekly CPP or higher as this would not be good for the shorts.

However based on the chart below i feel quite confident in my analysis and why i am short... Only thing i should have done better was WAIT for a entry higher up then i could have same Dollar risk with more potential profit also.

Anyway would be about the same. Hope the chart helps. I did a video but cant upload for some reason, i will try put that up as it is more detailed.

Basically what i am seeing is no retrace. We have broken out of the trend channel and also broken a 4 hourly low. Now we should make a 4 hour lower top and then away we go to the short side.... in theory...



:)

Weekly Update

I am thinking because it is so time consuming to post here i might limit it down to once a week (weekends) is when i do most my analysis.

I mean i don'd mind sharing my thoughts but it takes so long to post charts up and for this reason i will limit this unless people want specific things answered then please feel free to send me an email and i will work on your questions. scilliamstrading@gmail.com

Anyway i will give my update and thoughts for the week but in much more detail.

Try make it more of a newsletter wrap up thing but with more of a focus of what i will be watching in the week. Obviously it is better to follow on twitter as i update that live as i am taking trades and see things. But remember you all need to make your own decisions. I will try doing videos during the week when i have the time. :)

FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER: we are now into the first week of October... where has this year gone!

This week there is the RBA interest rate decision and that will have a major play on the markets im assuming. (personally i dont think they will raise interest rates) i feel that the AUD has been given to much probability of a rate rise and will get sold off on the announcement regardless...

I am this week going to watch JBH. I feel JBH might be coming near to making a top and taking a decline back to between $15 or $17 area. (indicated by the blue highlight on chart)



This area is also 180 degrees or square of the highs and coincidently the 50% fib level from the last major range up. There are 2 major repeating ranges down both which project a target to around this area. From here i want to see a lower top formed with over bought Daily indicators. Once this has happened i would look to take the entry. However i should indicate that i want this to be within 25% of my monthly ranges.

I am thinking JBH will be a great long for monday when you play the openers rule with it. I would be looking for a target around initially $21 and then $21.20 area. Once a swing looks confirmed i will open a short position with stops over the highs at $22.50 area and try and short the stock back down to around $15/$17. I will assess as the position begins to shape up as there is still the risk that it will make a double top before going down.

I thought i would share that plan here as its open to interpretation and is more of a longer term look for the stock.

Hope it was useful :)

Video on MQG

Trade i did on MQG here is the video...

http://www.youtube.com/user/scilliams?feature=mhum

:)

Gold

Looking at the gold chart all you can do is think WOW that is a big rise!

We seem to keep wanting to short gold but patience is probably the best way to deal with this chart. Obviously $1300 was going to be a significant level but do we really think it will stop there? I DONT KNOW!

I have just done this chart to show the first major range on gold reached 150% and pulled back. I have drawn a horizontal black line at this level and another one at 161.8% of that move. To me a parabolic rise like this only ends going one way and that is down!

When or where from is the more refined art of this 'top picking' game. I certainly think gold could push through $1300 and even up to $1350 if it rapidly accelerated north i would be so confident in saying that this is a top and a major correction will follow.

I have included the fib levels as well as the strong $1000 level on the chart with a repeating range. These would be the areas i would watch as a profit level. Should gold begin to make any lower swing tops i will begin to short it and try ride it for a couple months down to these levels.

But this will develop in time :)



I will put up some more charts soon :)

BHP

Here is a chart i did on BHP for a friend.

Higher lows and looks to be in a bit of an uptrend but it will be coming into that trendline and i would maybe expect it to reject and could get short from there?

Will be interesting to see how this week plays out but im sure we will have plenty of good opportunities to make some dollars :)