Gotta run! i will get an update up this weekend :)
About Me
- Scott Williams
- I am a young invester/Trader, i mostly focus on Short term or Intra day trading on the equities or Forex markets. I have recently completed my Bachelor of Commerce double major in Finance and Property. I have also completed my RG146 in securities and Financial planning and while trading is a passion my desire is to work within the stockbroking industry or as a trader for an investment bank. This blog I have set up to help share ideas to others on trades and tips i have picked up from my time in the market. I hope you enjoy my blog and some of my ideas :)
Friday, October 29, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Weekend Update
Hey,
Had a fairly busy weekend here, got a few charts up. Certainly thinking we are nearing a short term top but i guess we have been for a while. After this week i will be focusing on doing some short term index and forex trading and stocks will take the back seat!
Here are some thoughts.
The first is the XJO. Looks to be in a rising channel but with all the lower swing tops and swing lows id say its only 1 swing away breaking that and heading toward a 50% fib and that trendline. Indicators look like could break down and something to be watching.
These other charts are just on some of the stocks and i posted them on hotcopper charts this weekend so won't go into to much more detail here
First being EXT
Here is WOW
and JBH
Enjoy
:)
Had a fairly busy weekend here, got a few charts up. Certainly thinking we are nearing a short term top but i guess we have been for a while. After this week i will be focusing on doing some short term index and forex trading and stocks will take the back seat!
Here are some thoughts.
The first is the XJO. Looks to be in a rising channel but with all the lower swing tops and swing lows id say its only 1 swing away breaking that and heading toward a 50% fib and that trendline. Indicators look like could break down and something to be watching.
These other charts are just on some of the stocks and i posted them on hotcopper charts this weekend so won't go into to much more detail here
First being EXT
Here is WOW
and JBH
Enjoy
:)
Wednesday, October 20, 2010
Update... THE DOW!
Here is a update, had nice day today with few open shorts from over night. I'm thinking could have a bounce tomorrow if there isn't a follow through in the selling. Soon as we see a lower swing top then that will be the confirmation to short... This is a chart on the DOW JONES....
We have been similar to the April tops in that we tracked upwards with indicators in the overbought zone for an extended period of time. Again there are some significant dates and events that happened in October so if we get another rapid decline similar to the one preceding April will we get some great volatility and opportunities... i certainly think so.
The bigger picture for me is a sideways market for a extended period.
I recently sent my resume off to a few stockbroking firms and maybe soon i will be giving professional advice and learning a new side of the market. I'm excited for this challenge and feel i could bring my trading skills into this profession and make myself and all my clients some money in a hard market!
Anyway ill try get some more up this arvo or later in the week
:)
We have been similar to the April tops in that we tracked upwards with indicators in the overbought zone for an extended period of time. Again there are some significant dates and events that happened in October so if we get another rapid decline similar to the one preceding April will we get some great volatility and opportunities... i certainly think so.
The bigger picture for me is a sideways market for a extended period.
I recently sent my resume off to a few stockbroking firms and maybe soon i will be giving professional advice and learning a new side of the market. I'm excited for this challenge and feel i could bring my trading skills into this profession and make myself and all my clients some money in a hard market!
Anyway ill try get some more up this arvo or later in the week
:)
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Terribly Sorry
Guys im sorry i haven't had to much time to update the blog.
Had interview on Monday in the city and today i was focused on making some moolah!
It looks like we have reached a near term top from the chinese interest rate decision which basically shows them cooling their economy and maybe demands for resources.
should see a strong sell off tomorrow on the markets lucky we got some nice shorts in there on the resource sector!
If only we had some gold and NCM...bit late grrr
always next time.
I will try get some charts up hopefully if i see something worth while.
Happy trading :)
Had interview on Monday in the city and today i was focused on making some moolah!
It looks like we have reached a near term top from the chinese interest rate decision which basically shows them cooling their economy and maybe demands for resources.
should see a strong sell off tomorrow on the markets lucky we got some nice shorts in there on the resource sector!
If only we had some gold and NCM...bit late grrr
always next time.
I will try get some charts up hopefully if i see something worth while.
Happy trading :)
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
Long John Silver
I have been having a look at silver and gold lately.
Silver is at the 50% of the previous major rise. There are also a few time dates that land on this week month so suspecting that it will be a top if it play out. Certainly seems pretty toppy being at the top of this channel. Should we begin to break out i will have to cover short positions... Hopefully not and hope even more they don't just do a fake out.
All my weekly and daily indicators are up the top and it is so extended from its EMA's so i suspect will try pulling back towards these... Targets would be around 21.50 to 22 initially and longer view back to 20 support.
:)
Silver is at the 50% of the previous major rise. There are also a few time dates that land on this week month so suspecting that it will be a top if it play out. Certainly seems pretty toppy being at the top of this channel. Should we begin to break out i will have to cover short positions... Hopefully not and hope even more they don't just do a fake out.
All my weekly and daily indicators are up the top and it is so extended from its EMA's so i suspect will try pulling back towards these... Targets would be around 21.50 to 22 initially and longer view back to 20 support.
:)
Monday, October 11, 2010
Gann - BHP
Ok so for those of you that follow this blog i thought i would share a bit of gann stuff in regards to time and price on BHP.
Firstly this does not really mean that a turn must happen but it certainly does give weight to anyone looking to get a short position.
How i would trade this tomorrow (Tuesday) is that i would apply openers rule for my position 1. So this means i will take 1/3 or 1/2 of a full position when price falls below the opening price. Should it open and go flying up to around 41.60 area i will take some of a position and just give it a wide stop loss as this position wont be huge. Then i would add to this position on the first confirmed lower swing top. After that stops are moved down to the highs and i will look for $39 or around here as my target....
This first chart i have is a repeating time range chart. This shows the move down from april highs to the lows in may as a time and how often it has repeated and called turns.
The second his the Square root turns. This is the high or low price of a point on the chart and finding the square root of this and then turning it into calendar days and projecting forward to find a turn date on the stock.
The third chart is showing the significant number of time and price turns landing on and around the 11/12th of october. Mostly trading days but some significant calendar days from prior highs and lows.
This last chart shows the indicators clearly in the over bought area of the chart as well as the Square of 9 resistance from the April tops. This is resistance at 41.69. This level 41.60 is also significant for BHP as it is a multiple of the all time lows and has proven to be resistance previously.
The last chart i am posting is the monthly range of BHP which is around $4. We can see that price is currently at the 50% level of this a very strong failure point and another factor for us looking for a turn.
That is my analysis on BHP. I wouldn't normally share that but thought i would try rewarding those who actually read this blog regularly and provide some out side of the box analysis on a major stock that is regularly traded.
Should we not get a nice openers rule or a good entry we might not even take a position but it certainly does help the argument that the market that we could have a slight correction this week with so many cycles lining up.
Hope that was enlightening
Regards,
Scott
Firstly this does not really mean that a turn must happen but it certainly does give weight to anyone looking to get a short position.
How i would trade this tomorrow (Tuesday) is that i would apply openers rule for my position 1. So this means i will take 1/3 or 1/2 of a full position when price falls below the opening price. Should it open and go flying up to around 41.60 area i will take some of a position and just give it a wide stop loss as this position wont be huge. Then i would add to this position on the first confirmed lower swing top. After that stops are moved down to the highs and i will look for $39 or around here as my target....
This first chart i have is a repeating time range chart. This shows the move down from april highs to the lows in may as a time and how often it has repeated and called turns.
The second his the Square root turns. This is the high or low price of a point on the chart and finding the square root of this and then turning it into calendar days and projecting forward to find a turn date on the stock.
The third chart is showing the significant number of time and price turns landing on and around the 11/12th of october. Mostly trading days but some significant calendar days from prior highs and lows.
This last chart shows the indicators clearly in the over bought area of the chart as well as the Square of 9 resistance from the April tops. This is resistance at 41.69. This level 41.60 is also significant for BHP as it is a multiple of the all time lows and has proven to be resistance previously.
The last chart i am posting is the monthly range of BHP which is around $4. We can see that price is currently at the 50% level of this a very strong failure point and another factor for us looking for a turn.
That is my analysis on BHP. I wouldn't normally share that but thought i would try rewarding those who actually read this blog regularly and provide some out side of the box analysis on a major stock that is regularly traded.
Should we not get a nice openers rule or a good entry we might not even take a position but it certainly does help the argument that the market that we could have a slight correction this week with so many cycles lining up.
Hope that was enlightening
Regards,
Scott
Wednesday, October 6, 2010
Gold Parabolic
I did another post on gold but this one is just basic. Thought i would overlay the XJO and show the parabolic rise there and what gold is doing at the moment. Im not gonna bother picking a top but i know what the result is going to be...
Tuesday, October 5, 2010
AUD/USD ... are you kidding me?
SO SO SO.... that RBA decided to leave rates on hold today (as i expected, pffft as if they would raise them with inflation steady, housing data not to hot and where the AUD was!)
There are many problems associated with having a strong currency especially for exporters.
Anyway. After the announcement and the subsequent fall in the AUD/USD i looked for an entry. I scalped a few pips here and there but hadn't built my position yet.
Now i am in from an average of around 9620 and its currently trading over 9660... are you kidding me?
Anyway stops are higher up for my positions being spread. Basically i dont want it to go over the weekly CPP or higher as this would not be good for the shorts.
However based on the chart below i feel quite confident in my analysis and why i am short... Only thing i should have done better was WAIT for a entry higher up then i could have same Dollar risk with more potential profit also.
Anyway would be about the same. Hope the chart helps. I did a video but cant upload for some reason, i will try put that up as it is more detailed.
Basically what i am seeing is no retrace. We have broken out of the trend channel and also broken a 4 hourly low. Now we should make a 4 hour lower top and then away we go to the short side.... in theory...
:)
There are many problems associated with having a strong currency especially for exporters.
Anyway. After the announcement and the subsequent fall in the AUD/USD i looked for an entry. I scalped a few pips here and there but hadn't built my position yet.
Now i am in from an average of around 9620 and its currently trading over 9660... are you kidding me?
Anyway stops are higher up for my positions being spread. Basically i dont want it to go over the weekly CPP or higher as this would not be good for the shorts.
However based on the chart below i feel quite confident in my analysis and why i am short... Only thing i should have done better was WAIT for a entry higher up then i could have same Dollar risk with more potential profit also.
Anyway would be about the same. Hope the chart helps. I did a video but cant upload for some reason, i will try put that up as it is more detailed.
Basically what i am seeing is no retrace. We have broken out of the trend channel and also broken a 4 hourly low. Now we should make a 4 hour lower top and then away we go to the short side.... in theory...
:)
Sunday, October 3, 2010
Weekly Update
I am thinking because it is so time consuming to post here i might limit it down to once a week (weekends) is when i do most my analysis.
I mean i don'd mind sharing my thoughts but it takes so long to post charts up and for this reason i will limit this unless people want specific things answered then please feel free to send me an email and i will work on your questions. scilliamstrading@gmail.com
Anyway i will give my update and thoughts for the week but in much more detail.
Try make it more of a newsletter wrap up thing but with more of a focus of what i will be watching in the week. Obviously it is better to follow on twitter as i update that live as i am taking trades and see things. But remember you all need to make your own decisions. I will try doing videos during the week when i have the time. :)
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER: we are now into the first week of October... where has this year gone!
This week there is the RBA interest rate decision and that will have a major play on the markets im assuming. (personally i dont think they will raise interest rates) i feel that the AUD has been given to much probability of a rate rise and will get sold off on the announcement regardless...
I am this week going to watch JBH. I feel JBH might be coming near to making a top and taking a decline back to between $15 or $17 area. (indicated by the blue highlight on chart)
This area is also 180 degrees or square of the highs and coincidently the 50% fib level from the last major range up. There are 2 major repeating ranges down both which project a target to around this area. From here i want to see a lower top formed with over bought Daily indicators. Once this has happened i would look to take the entry. However i should indicate that i want this to be within 25% of my monthly ranges.
I am thinking JBH will be a great long for monday when you play the openers rule with it. I would be looking for a target around initially $21 and then $21.20 area. Once a swing looks confirmed i will open a short position with stops over the highs at $22.50 area and try and short the stock back down to around $15/$17. I will assess as the position begins to shape up as there is still the risk that it will make a double top before going down.
I thought i would share that plan here as its open to interpretation and is more of a longer term look for the stock.
Hope it was useful :)
I mean i don'd mind sharing my thoughts but it takes so long to post charts up and for this reason i will limit this unless people want specific things answered then please feel free to send me an email and i will work on your questions. scilliamstrading@gmail.com
Anyway i will give my update and thoughts for the week but in much more detail.
Try make it more of a newsletter wrap up thing but with more of a focus of what i will be watching in the week. Obviously it is better to follow on twitter as i update that live as i am taking trades and see things. But remember you all need to make your own decisions. I will try doing videos during the week when i have the time. :)
FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER: we are now into the first week of October... where has this year gone!
This week there is the RBA interest rate decision and that will have a major play on the markets im assuming. (personally i dont think they will raise interest rates) i feel that the AUD has been given to much probability of a rate rise and will get sold off on the announcement regardless...
I am this week going to watch JBH. I feel JBH might be coming near to making a top and taking a decline back to between $15 or $17 area. (indicated by the blue highlight on chart)
This area is also 180 degrees or square of the highs and coincidently the 50% fib level from the last major range up. There are 2 major repeating ranges down both which project a target to around this area. From here i want to see a lower top formed with over bought Daily indicators. Once this has happened i would look to take the entry. However i should indicate that i want this to be within 25% of my monthly ranges.
I am thinking JBH will be a great long for monday when you play the openers rule with it. I would be looking for a target around initially $21 and then $21.20 area. Once a swing looks confirmed i will open a short position with stops over the highs at $22.50 area and try and short the stock back down to around $15/$17. I will assess as the position begins to shape up as there is still the risk that it will make a double top before going down.
I thought i would share that plan here as its open to interpretation and is more of a longer term look for the stock.
Hope it was useful :)
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