AQA

Hey just did a quick chart on AQA after a mate pointed her out to me.



Things i liked were:
1. Breaking out from the old highs after the gap down now looking to be moving up and to close the gap.

2. Stochstics at the bottom just crossed to the upside with other time frames pointing up.

3. Bounced twice off the 41EMA and looks to be supporting here well.

4. 5 and 13 EMA about to cross the 21 EMA and looking bullish.

5. I will be buying on any dip

Can Either put stop below the 41EMA or below the low of the candle today or yesterday depending on ya risk etc. But initial target for me would be $10.30 to get the gap fill.

Thank for pointing her out to me today... sigh would have been nice if i was paying a bit more attention and found it earlier.

p.s. sorry for the bland chart haha

JB YOU'VE DONE IT AGAIN

Hey everyone,

So i have been updating this blog a bit more than i suggested a week ago but i have been seeing a few things that have interested me lately. BLY is the only one that is not really co-operating but she will come around :)

Anyway i thought i would show you something with JBH, This stock has been pretty amazing to watch this year and it seems they are almost the only store people ever go to, everytime im at the shops all i ever see are these tiny little yellow bags and girls like these...


Anyway they are nice but lets look at the chart people.

I Am going to show you the 4 hourly chart first which is showing that we should be going long on her for a little scalp, i think she is gonna head back up to $23 but this will be the key now, if it cant make a new high from here above the $23.55 then it will be confirming a downward move, idealling a double top would be fab for a short :)


Next i show the daily, this also shows that we should be going long seeing as it closed aboce the trendline and rallied up from here, now watch her to see if it can break to a new high or will reverse. If i had long term stocks and i saw this happen i would be selling boys you have had a good run :) dont be greedy.



Anyway then from here i would be shorting and looking for a target of 19.58, might even go further but like i said no point in being greedy. Stops aboce the high at 23.72.

Low risk to Reward play but make sure you wait for the confirmation!! Remember not following the crowd sometimes is the most profitable but it could also hurt. shorting JBH at christmas is a scary thought but maybe i just wont shop there!!

Anyway try not gettin emotional about trades and just trade what we see it works much better.

JBH its time you give someone else a turn!!! GO HARVY NORMAN GO hahaha

CHEAP PETROL

Caltex -

When everyone thinks she was sinking We came to the rescue... Let me show you why below...




She is holding the $8 resistance levels from back in 2004.

Is showing an inverted head and shoulders pattern on the chart and has completed the down range to the resistance. She is looking way oversold and is ready for a move up. Long term i would be lookng for around the $15 mark possibly but i think a more realistic target between 12-13 is more likely attainable. no need to be greedy. hehehe

Minimal risk entry with a tight stop just below $8 and plenty of upside left.

Weekly Updates

Hey Guys,

Sorry for the lack of updates I have jsut been really busy, Sorry. I have decided i will update this blog most likely on the weeknds for a review of the week and what is likely to happen this week or what i am thinking hehe. I will also try and put a few photos on here to keep it interesting and i might even eventually get to videos and show you guys some of the trades i did.

Anyway this week i have bought the stock BLY: boart Longyear a mining services company



The chart i have posted (daily) which now shows a confirmation of a move upwards, it has broken outof the old resistance levels and the weekly chart is showing a move to the upside is now ready on the stochastics. A few friends also were showing me some time and price turn dates and BLY is right on it ready for a move. Bit of other information from a excellent source that this baby is technically due for a run to possible the 75c levels - i dont doubt it.

Short term i will be looking for it to break 40c, when this happens i will add to my position and look for over 50c near term and then up to the 75c range target.

Stops at 32c

Hope this helps.

http://www.zurichsecurities.com.au/

ALSO for got to mention i am investing in the IPO the Zurich Securities are doing for SHREE minerals. This is through my old boss Colin Vost and sounds like an excellent IPO with NO SHARES being issued under 20c and all the directors and company managements shares will be in escrow for 24months so no selling. They will be drilling in Janurary from what i understand is an already VERY prospective tenement in Tasmania next door to another big mine. Shree have contracts with Gujurat who are backed by the Largest private owned Chinese steel mill and have a keen interest in Shree. Anyway that is my 2 cents on it. If anyone wants to be involved with this IPO you can apply for shares from the website below just click on the shree prospectus and send it in to Zurich before the 23rd of December - Although it may be extended :)

http://www.zurichsecurities.com.au/

Peak Oil

Recently i have been watching a couple of documentaries regarding peak oil and the likely implications this might have on the world.

A very scary prospect actually running out of oil and what would happen to the lead up to this, the price of oil increasing dramatically, asset prices decreasing and people going hungry as they can't afford food as the price would increase in line with oil as oil is used to make/produce/transport food. Countries would go to war over oil and resources and basically anarchy would evolve until a solution is found.

My ideas from watching these documentaries would be:

1) Invest in oil as a raw commoditie and wait for the price to increase (likely timeframe until run out of oil 20 years? Price should increase over this time frame)

2) For a more practical approach invest in housing, inner city apartments or even better land in these areas, with the transport costs going up demand for inner city living should increase and thus so will the housing price. if you are wanting investment properties again always look close to public transport and close to the city and other ammenities. This will be very important in the coming years!

3) renewable energy investments, it is likely that this will bubble as more and more people start investing and there will be a lot of scammers and people who will invest in companies that will fizzle and die, like all the internet companies during the 2000 tech boom, or the Car makers that fizzled when the car was introduced and so on, but from this there will also be quality companies that will be able to improve and make substantial profits. It will be a matter of picking the right company tho

There are many other ways to take advantage of this but these are the main ones that come into mind initially, will be interesting to see what happens and how we would deal with such a massive lifestyle change. Personally i think Uranium will be the next big thing as it is cheaper and more efficient than the others...time will tell

The Correction? Incorrect?

Well it is now the question on most people lips. Is the market going to correct down and put an end to the dream run we have had from March.

Well this is a chart of the XJO that i just did and am rechecking over to make sure that i am correct because currently the futures are up a whole heap and the UK just was up over 2% and i have over $40k worth of short sells... Tomorrow might be ruff... But for the week? Well silly you might be saying opening a short but the plan was the monday would rally, tuesday would be up and then short into the highs, i did time it a bit early and decided to hold them over the end of the day then looking at the futures i began to have second thoughts.

I am still going to hold them tomorrow and close them friday because i do still strongly believe that the market is going to fall over. This is my analysis of the XJO Chart and why i think maybe this might be the last leg up :)



Then again if it breaks it to the upside maybe the dream run will continue...but looking at all the signs i do find this much less likely... Anyway if im wrong i will lose money on my shorts... believe me i am still stressed hehe

Intra Day Trading

Using CFD's which is quite risky but i have been doing well so far. I am developing a really good system and at the moment am quite busy back testing this to make sure i have a fool proof system that works and that wont allow me to get all emotional while trading and make irrational decisions.

Infront of me i have my trading plan typed out and on of the rules is: Dont let emotions ruin a trade, emotions are for girls.

When i have developed the plan properly i may consider sharing it with everyone... maybe

Currency Values - Importance of Interest rates

Hey guys sorry for the lack of updates as promised i have just been a bit busy.

For this post i thought i would try and explain a bit about how interest rates affect the strength of a currency. As you are probably aware the interest rates in Oz have been going up as of late and if you havent noticed but our currency has strengthened, for example just look at it compared to the US dollar.

One of the reasons that our currency has been gettin stronger is because of a thing called the interest rate parity. What this referes to without going into the maths to much is that the country with a higher interest rate so that being the cash rate that people can invest in is higher than another country a thing called arbitrage becomes possible. because you could say borrow money in america at a near to flat interest rate say can borrow at 1% then invest it in australia at say 3.75% or what ever you are offered from a bank, that means you are able to make 2.75% interest on your money for doing nothing, then you can pay off your loan in america and make profit. So because everyone will want to do this becuase it is almost riskless profit the currency of the country must appreciate (the one with the higher interest rate) while the other one is weaker as people want the stronger one. So to offset the ability to make these profits the currency gets stronger so when you exchange it accross it will end up being fair value.

So basicially without considering to many other factors if the aus interest rate keeps going up and the american stays flat as they are predicting for a while then we could quite easily see parity with the USD... not considering to much else :P

Finally I am a Graduate!

Well today was my last exam and i was more than happy to get out of there!

I love finishing exams and knowing that i dont have to go back is an even better feeling :)

Anyway i raced home from my exam to check the market to see BHP had reached $41 dollars, i was saying yesterday it would only get to maybe $40.50 so i was trying to time a good entry for a short on it. Long story short i got a bit greedy trying to milk it for a few extra cents missed the order and then it tanked so opportunity lost.

It might be a blessing in disguise as i really should be waiting for a proper confirmation. Tomorrow will be the tell tale day and i think i will be shorting it from there with a target of about $36.50

On th chart below i have indicated why i think it is over bought, the repeating range was up to $40.56 and it was $41 today, but it fell back heavily which is what i think is people opening short positions on it. So i think tomorrow it will open down and maybe form an island pattern as indicated with the green circles (islands are a candle stick pattern that are a strong trend reversal pattern, Along with some of the other indicators that are looking over bought, All the stochastics except for the daily are and if they turn down tomorrow that will be a very strong sign as it is creating a divergance which is the higher highs on the stock price but the indicator only made a lower high so showing losing momentum and should crash. which is what i want it to do if i am shorting it.

Here is that chart if i do the trade tomorrow i will let you guys know and show you why and where i have my stops :)

As of Tuesday!!

I Will be Finished my last exam and no more uni!!

From the Wednesday i will be updating this blog most likely every day as i will be full time trading from then (while doing my RG146).

If you guys have any questions or anything feel free to leave a comment or send me an email.

I Might try put something a bit more ummm educational on here tonight...

A bit more information...

Hey guys,

I thought today while i was driving to uni for another prolonged study session for my international finance exam tomorrow that i should maybe explain a few things that had me stumped when i first started trading and playing with the share market and im sure some people might like to know if they dont follow the markets as much.

One of the questions i get asked a bit is why can't you just sell out if it is going to be a bad day? Its a good question. With the ASX lets say america just announced that Lehman brothers just collapsed and everyone is just selling like crazy and the dow jones closes down over 3%. A strong indicator that our market will be down also because people would be fearing that our market is weak or the banks might collapse. What ever the reason people will want to be selling.
What happens is there is a pre market match up. What this is is that for 3 hours before the market opens at 10am EST or 7am WST (fuck you daylight savings) there is a match up going on between the buyers and sellers. What this means is if everyone is trying to sell and people are taking their bids off the screen from the previous days or weeks or what ever and buyers are disappearing because everyone is scared and no one is buying then the sellers will be putting their orders in.

Say WBC - Westpac Bank closed at $25 the day before. now everyone thinks its going to crash and the closes bid (price someone is willing to pay for westpac is $21)the match price would say start at $21 and the sellers are piling up and trying to sell down to anyone who is willing to take it and then it might even go lower while the prices match up. Now when the market opens properly at 10am EST this will be the price and it will 'gap down' so it would have already lost say 10% for the day already!! so if you bought in the afternoon and the dow crashed then market opens 10% down that is down nothing you can do. And this is one of the risks if you are trading short term and why people always put so much emphasis on what happens over seas and what might happen in the markets.
We apply charts to these to try and predict but if a unforseeable event such as the lehman brothers or bear sterns happens then nothing can be donw and the market will just 'gap down'. Look at a candle stick chart to see what i mean but i will go more into Gaps and some more signals that they give in another post.

To much to do with uni, just thought i would clear things up with you guys. It can also gap up the other way which is fannnntastic if you bought in the afternoon :)

Hope this helps :)

EXTRACT - EXT

Extract is a uranium miner in Namibia, I watched this stock go from $2.50 to over $11 and now looks like it is going back again :P

I think it is taking some time before it keeps going, the Fundamentals of this Stock are excellent and i am very bullish uranium. A few interesting things with EXT are that they are still drilling and they could further increase the already massive poundage of urnaium at the rossing south. They have much potential for a Take Over bid although they say they are not for sale i guess anyone is for the right price...

Still if you are wanting to trade a stock it is good to see the repeating ranges and assume that they will repeat as in the name.

I think this is how things might play out for EXT over the next month or so before it will keep going up. I dont know i have seen many takes on what might happen but i guess it is worth watching.

Exam Week

Sorry guys i wont be able to do to much this week as i have just had one exam yesterday which was not to bad i thought. I have another one on friday which i need to do some study for still and then my last one is on the Tuesday, after that i will get into gear and start making some worth while posts.

This week i think the market will rally until thursday when the unemployment data will be worse than expected and then the market should turn down... well that is my thoughts it might be good news and everything will continue its journey to the moon.

Well until next week i dont think i will be updating this so i will update then and see what has happend :)

Non Farm Payrolls

Well the number was worse than expectations and as a result we saw a strong rally in the USD but this was short lived as the dow bounced back up and regained to close fairly flat. I did not place any FOREX trades on the actual annoucnement but did spend about 2 hours listening to wayne from FXbootcamp.com and it was very benificial.

i think i might even join up, it is quite pricey so i think i will do it when i have a solid week to focus on only trading FOREX markets and leave the equities for a week. I will keep you all posted on this.

I Still think the market has more to fall maybe another week of red? might be a correction from here? I do have doubts with the economy and with this latest job data things are not looking good. Wayne who lives in the US thinks that the unemployment is more like 17% as opposed to the 10% that is given and the effects this has on the economy are detrimental. All we need to do is look to 2010 and see that with out the people having money to buy things or build then the prices of the commodities will decline due to the lack of demand, copper was mentioned as one. I think the worlds economies are still in very bad shape but are slowly recovering, i mean i sound fairly bearish but sometimes you cant always just got with the flow...look what happend in 08, good things do come to an end and a 50% gain from the december lows is pretty good.

Will be interesting to see, i will only be looking to make short term trades, might be able to do a few this week but i guess ill see how i go with exams.

Enjoy

Gold Chart

Well Gold has been all the hype lately and although i dont think it will go to much higher fundamentally as it has moved to far to quick (but hasnt everything) you cant go past this chart. such a strong trend and i must say it looks like it will break the $1100 level easy and should push to around the 1150 level before any sort of a pull back. I am still a Bear on the market and think it will fall further but gold certainly looks to be going the other way for the time being but maybe a small correction will happen? If only we can see the future eh...

Here is some gold love for all the gold bugs, I have not traded gold lately, Maybe when i finish my exams :P

Non Farm Payrolls

Well the NonFarm Payrolls will be coming out at 12:30GMT, What the non farm payrolls represent is the unemployment in non rural jobs, basically if the number is negative that means more people lost their jobs than those who actually got work. The consensus is that it will be -175 000. If the expectations exceed this and the number is lower then this will be a positive signal to the market and the USD should rally as well as the DJIA. I am attending a webinar at 8:30am perth time with Wayne McDonell the chief currency coach for www.fxbootcamp.com, i am looking forward to the result and what i will learn from this in the morning.

Personally i think that the number will be worse than expectations as unemployment seems to still be rising with johnson and johnson cutting 7000 jobs and even warren buffets jet company cutting jobs it is clear the economy is still struggeling, even with all the stimulus measures. Still we have all been surprised before as we all know it is one crazy market to try make sense of.

I will post any results or charts from my trading in the morning...if this webinar works

- Scott Williams

First Entry...

My Trading Blog,

Keep a public Journal of my trading ideas, reports, thoughts and tips for myself to reflect on and others to read and to try make sense of the crazy world that is the stock market....stockkkkksssss