Aussie Market Update

Sorry i didn't get this up earlier i thought i actually posted it here Friday but i did put it on the forums i use instead.

Basically just thought i would update and share the chart with the bigger swings in the market with you all, we have now exceeded 30 days of this down trend so i am expecting it to run to at least 60 days now. This take it into the middle of June i feel a key time as there are a few important turn dates in there. I do however have a few starting at the beginning of June so this week i think is going to be interesting also. Should be a bit of a fight between the bulls and bears and definitely not a time to be taking sides either way although i am feeling the down side has more potential.



The other Chart i have here is a 5 day cycle chart that displays the period when we were in an uptrend the 5 day retracements that we experienced or in this general time frame. Now that we are in a down trend i have noticed that we have maybe reversed this position and will have 5 day rallies followed by a continuation of the down trend.



I am not sure how much more down side we have but i certainly am not putting 4000 out of the question and think that it is definitely a possibility.

If we do get another steep down leg to 4000 i would be happy to begin to recommend some blue chip shares (preferably high dividend paying ones) to begin building a long term portfolio as if the yields are around 7% say with good growth potential stocks it will be a good time to start a portfolio in an otherwise weak and fearful market...if only i had a broking firm to work through sigh...

Well that is it from me for now looking forward to this week should be plenty of volatility again.

:)

Mundane originality...

Well this chart i was inspired after seeing a similar one around and thought i would share it around.

Basically looking at this chart we can see where we have traded and what seems to be sustainable stable boring mundane growth...sure you might not get super rich super quick but then again there is stability and to an extent predictability. But i know everyone prefers the parabolic rises, those steep steep steeeeep moves up. Who doesnt like getting rich!?!

But they come with a downside..damn we didnt read the small print...

Im guessing our market needs time. We have had to many huge moves up and down to continue in any of these directions IN MY OPINION. Personally i think we are going to fade down slowly to the bottom of the channel at which point the market will go ahh things certatinly have settled i might get back into the market and we will start our hopefully slow and steady growth for a while with not MAJOR hiccups or BOOMS...although a boom wouldnt hurt except next time everyone remember... SELL AT THE TOP!! hehehe

nd it lol


:)

Update...

This isnt one...

I am letting market take a bit of a breather, been trading nicely and might start stepping it up a bit more. I took first over night position short on ANZ tonight and will close on weekly range im hopeing to get $21 tomorrow but will see in the morning.

I will try get some charts up later i was just a bit busy today and have been last few nights. Barely getting my own charts done!!

RMD made nice lower top today also and fell over and closed the gap. I Should have closed on the weekly range on monday when it completed but you know me im in her for the long haul to $7 and below :)

More later

XJO update

I think retest the underside of the megaphone pattern and those lows... then break for lower. Run down prob until the end of the year.

I have a turn date end of this week coming up so if we are up until then and looking like resistance could be more shorting to come

Some charts starting to look ok thought with some bullish divergence across the indicators... im not getting my hopes up though and still will trade each thing daily... RMD been nice so far though :)



There is another level not shown on the chart the 50% fib level and i think that might be important also but ill do a chart on that later for everyone :)

That one could play nicely if it lines up in time also... but more on that later i think the price level is around 4038 or there abouts ill have to double check. Time for the weekend now guys and remember don't get caught in the hype to much :)

MEDIC! RMD!!

RMD,

This stock got brought to my attention the other day and i did a bit of analysis on it. Certainly looks like could be a nice short coming up from it? I certainly might be thinking about selling if i held the stock due to where it is.

The first chart shows the Trend Channel that it has been trading in, recently the price has moved to the top of the trend channel and was rejected. This top certainly has weight to it that the rise has been parabolic and with my experience of charts when they get vertical generally they only have one way to go and that is down.



I have also included the repeating ranges that appear with some support levels some taht correlate nicely to the Gann price levels and i will be looking at these as profit targets



This last chart i have included shows the gann levels from squaring time and price and the turn date that is coming up on the 26th of May. something else that has made me consider that this could be a nice short. May not be anything but something i certainly am watching.



Hope you guys found this interesting :)

XJO Turning turning turned?

Hey guys,

I have been doing a lot of Gann stuff lately so thought i would share what i have been doign lately.
I have been doing a few charts on the XJO and these are just a couple i have with some notes.

Ok the first one i decided i would show was the bigger moves that have been happening. It was last night while we had a power cut i was doing some reading and was going over the chapter about time trend analysis. It caught my attention so i thought i would see how they fitted on to our beloved XJO. I found that the up movements in days was getting shorter first 99 days up then 67 then 65 so although the points up were different the time can be telling us a story?

It is also noticeable that the days down have been getting larger in time as well as price movements. First 21 then 29 now 34 if we stopped today with the prices increasing also. Another thing i wanted to show that was mentioned in the book is the lows have been broken which is not a good sign either.



The next chart i have included is the 443.1 cycle. The solid vertical purple lines are the 50% in time and the dashed black ones are 100% in time With my next one coming in early June. The horizontal lines are the price levels again of the square of 443.1 and the 50% levels also.



Next chart i have is the moon cycles just something i was mucking around with. Next full moon is the 28th i believe? quite close to that turn on XJO in early june?



Just some things to ponder over. I actually think we might head down to the 4209 level and then maybe turn up, would be quite drastic if we get down there leading into the turn. I will play around with a few other charts and try neaten them up a bit and put them up later tonight hopefully or maybe ill keep them for another day :)

COH More short analysis

Ok here is my COH analysis Prob a couple other things like the double top and what not but this is just what i have gotten from my charts and the market.

First is the cycle, 180days, 90 trading days and 30 trading days all lining up on that high day. I have included the trend line as well that i have in place and what justifies my target i feel also based on the 195 EMA positioning.



Next i have shown the divergence we are seeing on the indicators on the daily time frames. Certainly something i am aware of and the increased volume also could be signalling a top coming close?



Next i have the price cycle levels from the all time lows that have been squared out to give the following levels.

I think 69.68 level is a good target and a good risk to reward play should we get an entry any where around $76



And also here i have included an old chart of the repeating ranges with fib levels



One thing to consider also is that the weekly range of 78.6% has been completed down to 75.39 and the 100% level is to 74.77 so might be in the back of my mind when taking a position this week

I don't trade COH on an regular basis but i certainly would be thinking about selling if i held the stock and was worried short term correction. :)

Times spent in bank lines!

Well i decided to post the other WBC chart i have on time cycles. It really has been lovely now that we have a major high and low to work from so recently. They really will play a factor on many of the stocks and indicies for the next while no doubt.

Here we can see WBC time dates in the gann cycles of 30 and 45's. These turns i have market with extra importance of the dates that align being the 180, 270, 360, 450. The next date of 540 which aligns both the 45 and 30 day cycles comes in on the 17/7/2010 so keep that in mind also :)

I have also included the major cycles that work here. The all time high was $31.32 so if i project this into calander days as being 313 Days we are given to dates that produced highs (one not included on chart) but is the date of 9/9/2008 if anyone wanted to check and with the one we have included being the 19/7/2009 which actually produced a low and the market turned up from here. The next date i will be watching will be the 28th of May, if the market is running down into this date and it forms a reversal candle it could be a good long opportunity. The turn on the 480 cycle which is for the 18th comes in on tuesday and that looks like it will be a run down from there seeing as monday will be down?? Just my best guess. (maybe run down into the 28th then turn up?)

The All time lows were $14.40 and i have projected this as a 144 calander days forward. These have given the to dates indicated witch both have come in as tops. The next date comes in on the 19/8/2010 so another one i will watch closer to the time.

I hope this chart isnt to messy it really is my 'working' edition and i didnt really neaten it up. I will try a bit better next time :)

Just some more things to keep in the back of your head :)

Westpac $1.72?

Well i have spent the majority of my Saturday reading Gann books and playing with cycles on some of my charts...Maybe doesn't sounds overly exciting but once i begin and then i start playing with some theories and applying them to the stocks i trade i just can't put it down. The way it works is really amazing, Pure mathmatics at its best.

Here i have done a Chart on WBC that shows a 172 day cycle and a $1.72 price cycle. Basically the all time low was $1.72 so you can square this out and project the degrees forward in time as a cycle to find pressure points in the market. There are many teachings and some work better on one stock than another and i will try demonstrate this with more charts at a later date :)

Anyway i have started with the banks but i will just show you WBC for now.

Basically the green dotted lines indicate a 50% move of a price cycle, as we can see the top was almost perfectly aligned with this price level before she fell over. When april turn dates came for the market and we notice where the prices are on the cycle charts so for example WBC struggling to break the $28.38 level and the market looking toppy this i feel would be a low risk short and would be happy giving a sell recommendation.

My thoughts are still bearish and i would expect to see the price come down and maybe begin to turn up around the turn date as indicated by the black line in june.

I will be watching closely as WBC goes ex div monday and should maybe run down further. Anywhere near the $20.64 area i would be looking maybe for a long, espicially if it is near to the turn or another cycle date. Hope this analysis helps people try understand some of Gann's teachings, There are many other techniques that can be applied to WBC and the other banks and i will show those in more detail in the coming weeks :)

DOWn DOWn DOWn...

Well the DOW certainly is not pretty tonight, Down over 2% so far with Europe over 4% down.

I assumed this would happen and it is starting to look like a very feasible ABC correction. There was a Gann Turn date yesterday on the 14th of May and certainly does look like that was a short term market top or a lower swing that has now been made on the DOW and most indices. Panic stations should we break the lows, at the moment i am hoping my analysis is wrong and we will make a lower swing bottom and will be nice set up for the longs or if we do break lower that we get some nice divergence on the indicators i like and any strong charts might have a run.

Wishful thinking maybe but again i am holding very little over night now and i am still short focused. Markets are very volatile right now as it looks like the bulls and bears fight it out. Winter months my call is the bears are gonna have this one hehe.

EUR/USD is going $1.20 crazy markets!!

Ill post some charts tomorrow :)

EXTraction

Hey guys,

Have been a bit busy lately, and wow this market has been crazy hasn't it. I think i am leaning more and more towards trading the forex just love the leverage and ability to make profits on it with such a small capital outlay!!

Anyway here is a chart i posted on the weekend elsewhere on EXT, Just some repeating ranges and time absorption as to what i think might happen. That is unless they get taken over or something haha

Santos stay on the cycle path!!

Here i have done a chart on Santos (STO) This is using gann time cycles.

The all time low for STO is $2.10. I have turned this into 210 calander days and multiplied these forward from the all time low on the 11th June 1993.

I have indicated on the chart the most recent time turn dates and have drawn the long term uptrend support line with horizonal support levels that appear around the low $11 mark. Should price be around this level leading into the turn date i would categorise this as a realativly low risk buy with inital targets to the short term down trend resistance line with further target of repeating range out to the $18 area.



Now we play the waiting game...

Davey Jones Locker...

Ok here is my analysis on DJS... now i must warn you i am bearish and i think retailers are going to struggle with all these interest rate rises and just my general sentiment towards it all ill go good sammy's anyday hehehe

Anyway i have pointed out that on the weekly there could be bullish divergance on the indicators if it can turn up here (i doubt it) but i have included that just to show that it has not escaped my radar but i must say dont take in to much as you can cloud your decisions. As i have been taught keep it simple, know your risk and make your trades accordingly.

I have included first the weekly DJS chart on longer time frame. Not one candle of this recent top could close above that high making it a double top.



Now i will show you the DJS monthly chart where i see some bearish divergance on the indicators to go along with this double top she has made.



Now i think mmm could be a big down move here for DJS lets see what the recent price action is showing me...
Now i look at the daily of the recent and see a lovely little head and shoulders pattern that has formed over the top, i have taken the range from the head to the neck and extended it down where it looks to reach a support level around $3.30



Now i think mm i should check my swing charts and see how i could maybe play this if i was not already playing it shorts from that double top... and no i am not on this trade from that top!!



Here i think mmm maybe i will wait to see if it can retest that neckline again and make a fib retracement where i could short into and then ride the swings down again to my target levels for profits....

Just an example of how you might look over longer time frames for targets then use simple patterns and swings on larger timeframe to play this short without getting to involved with indicators.

Here is the weekly chart with the bullish divergance as promised for all the bulls.



Although to go long i would love to see a confirmation of an upmove first from the swing chart getting broken and making higher swing lows and tops before you go long (thankyou rob) :) Please refer to wall chart when ever you want to take long position as you dont make same mistake twice!!...



:)

Happy mothers day hope you all bought her something from DJS hehehe

JBH Swing trading

Guys after this week and seeing all those swings down i thought i would post a chart on Gann ABC swing trading, Basically you only trade swings and you pyramid your holdings higher or lower.

When you make a swing low and it breaks the high you buy your shares and put the stops at the bottom of that swing low (reverse for shorting). Then when it makes a higher swing bottom it is confirming when it breaks the previous swing top at which point you buy more shares and move stops to the bottom of the most recent swing low. You basically continue to do this until you are stopped out but making sure that you decrease the amount of shares that you are holding as to minimize you risks as you go and keep your average really low and give you the maximium amount of profit. You can alter this of course and try buy on the swing lows but waiting for the break confirms it.

Just thought i would show you guys this and how rewarding it can be and it is entirely feasible with CFD's now as that JBH position i mean not including your interest payments would only be an outlay of around 10 or 15% of the positions. I have not included brokerage here either but you can work it how you like.

Bear a phone

I am revisiting this megaphone pattern guys. I just cant really shake the thoughts that we will break the bottom of this, all these problems in the world with the PIGS and this new tax in australia if things keep up i have my bear suit on and this time its winter so i dont think i will be to out of place like i was in march/april bit to soon.

I have used a chart from voltaire a poster on the hotcopper forums who is absolutly excellent and i am fascinated by his work. He also does a lot of gann and time cycle charts as well and i have seen similar charts for the gann time cycle of 2010. This is one he posted and i thought it would be relevant to post here



Basically not a pretty picture and it is something that is very possible. On the plus side if we have learnt anything from 2008 when we get out of this there should be some excellent buying opportunities and the bull market of 2013 will begin :)

Here is my megaphone chart and what may happen based on the time cycles and how it could maybe pan out. definatily not for the feint hearted but lets just see. I also watched a very bearish video but lets not scare ourselves to much right now.



Remember when all the newspapers are super bearish is normally best time to buy :)

i like going light over night with my trading now in these markets but there are always opportunities :)

Kevin Fail

Still so unbelievable how badly Kevin Rudd is running this country. Some things i really laughed at seeing as it is about all we can do. I mean im not telling you which way to vote but seriously anything but labor.

I propose the BHP RIO FMG all those big miners out there and those rich boys get their money and say ill give anyone who doesnt vote labor $1 haha im sure they will save more doing that by not gettin the tax passed or even more than $1 per person maybe $10, in the long run it will still work out better for them haha

Caltex 123 ABC

Hey guys,

Just my take on CTX i remember posting a chart on this baby when she was $8 haha crazy how far it went, really should have held onto those shares i would be a heck of a lot richer. Anyway i have looked at her lately and have been playing a few scalps here and there but longer term this is what i think it might do.

the 5 elliot waves up into and ABC correction, that B wave has been taken to the 50% fib of that down range as a target but once it confirms and indicators are turning down then i think the C wave will run down to around that $11 mark as this is also the 38.2% fib of the recent range but i have not marked this on the chart so looks important level

STO Gann Fan Again

update on the STO chart.

Gann Fan was hit today i traded the dump and actually got stopped out of half of my position but when it closed strong i was glad i held the remainder, could see an inside day maybe? or a bounce from this line seeing as it was able to close above it.

Happy to watch and see what happens other wise ill be a buyer under $13 again, really the chart needs to see some higher swing bottoms to really convince me of a good bounce but happy to see and have a small position in case :)